Among all the good news in this month’s cover feature on the aluminum market and high-flying aerospace demand is a note of caution that should not get lost in the clouds. The aluminum industry, historically the substitutor, is learning what it feels like to be the substitutee.

Steelmakers have long felt the sting of lost business as automakers substitute lighter aluminum parts in place of steel ones in their ongoing quest to cut vehicle weight and eke out a few more mpg’s. Though automotive production is expected to be flat in 2006, aluminum shipments to vehicle makers will still increase by over 5 percent as new car designs continue to incorporate more aluminum. The aluminum content per vehicle is expected to hit 320 pounds in 2006, up from 295 pounds in 2005.

Much like the automakers, airframe manufacturers are obligated to move toward stronger but lighter materials to improve safety and fuel efficiency, especially in light of today’s unprecedented fuel costs. The latest generation of high-tech aircraft designs, both commercial and military, employ a surprising amount of new materials. Where once aluminum was clearly the alloy of choice for airframe parts, today it is being replaced by titanium and a new generation of composites in many cases.

The airlines’ much publicized financial woes aside, aircraft orders and build rates are robust. Airbus reported 417 orders for new aircraft in the first nine months of this year, a 30 percent increase, while the 647 aircraft orders Boeing had received through mid-October were more than double last year’s total.

Boeing jettisoned aluminum in favor of composite material for major portions of its new 787 passenger jet. The 787 will be 50 percent composite and 20 percent aluminum vs. the 12 percent composite and 50 percent aluminum in its earlier 777 model. Likewise, the new Airbus A350 will be 39 percent composite—including a composite wing—up from 22 percent in the previous generation of aircraft.

All of this demand for aircraft production, as well as pull from some non-aerospace markets, is putting a severe strain on the supply of certain grades of aluminum, as well as titanium and nickel-based alloys. Service centers report that they are scrambling to find enough metal to meet customers’ needs. Supplies are expected to remain tight for at least the next 12 to 18 months, especially for heat-treated aluminum plate.

Despite aluminum’s inroads into traditional steel applications, the steel industry has not just idly watched its share diminish. Steelmakers from around the globe have banded together to fund research that has produced such innovative engineering breakthroughs as lightweight advanced high strength steels and tailor-welded blanks. Perhaps it’s time for the aluminum industry to apply its own research with a greater sense of urgency.

“There lies the challenge for aluminum,” says Keith Harvey of Kaiser Aluminum. “We need to promote new, stronger, lighter alloys and increase the applications for existing alloys” such as aluminum lithium. “We need to convince airframe manufacturers that aluminum still has a lot of valuable characteristics.”