It’s difficult for a magazine that comes out once a month to attempt to cover a news event that changes hour by hour. But it would be irresponsible not to at least comment on the Hurricane Katrina disaster.

As I write this Sept. 6, the day before we go to press, engineers have repaired one New Orleans levee and begun to pump water out of the flooded city. Authorities are turning their attention to the grim task of recovering the dead, predicted to total as many as 10,000 souls. Politicians and pundits continue to point fingers—some of them white, some of them black—in a fruitless attempt to affix blame for ineffective early rescue efforts. And thousands of displaced human beings continue to suffer.

Some metals companies and their employees were stuck in the thick of it, as reported on page 62. I pray that by the time you read these words later this month, the suffering has eased, the fingers have resumed some productive task, and plans are in the works for the revival of the Gulf Coast.

Producers and distributors of metal products stand to see a boost in orders as determined residents begin to restore homes and businesses, and government officials address critical infrastructure repairs. It could be awhile before suppliers start to see demand from such reconstruction activities in the region, however.

Experts warn that the rebuilding process promises to be long and protracted, and that construction-related gains for the economy will likely be offset by energy-related losses. One Merrill Lynch report estimates that the post-hurricane surge in economic activity could add $40 billion to America’s GDP, while disruptions to energy supplies could raise prices enough to reduce that gain by $30 billion.

The real concern, economists say, is not how high gas prices get, but how long they remain there. If it takes months to get the Gulf region’s oil and natural gas infrastructure back on line, demand could outstrip supply for some time.

Alarming $3 to $4 figures on signs at the gas pumps could cause consumers to cut back, at least temporarily. Without the runaway consumer borrowing and spending that has sustained GDP growth the last few years, the economy could see a downturn, and not just in the South. Estimates of likely reductions in U.S. growth rates due to Hurricane Katrina range from a few tenths to a full percentage point in the third and fourth quarters.

Looking beyond the damage to the oil-industry infrastructure, University of Maryland economist Peter Morici emphasizes the impact of lost roads and bridges on commerce. The need to relocate people, get rid of floodwaters and restore water and sewage systems will slow the process of rebuilding vital transportation links. In turn, he says, this will both prolong the direct economic effects on the region and reduce the potential for the national economy to compensate through the natural shift of economic activities to neighboring regions.

It could be a month, if not months, before citizens can return to their communities to begin the process of rebuilding, he notes. “The expected economic bounce from rebuilding will be much delayed, deepening the impact of the storm. In the past, the rebuilding bounce has erased much of the lasting effects of natural disasters. Not so with Katrina.”