Global steel demand will decline again in 2024, worldsteel reports in its latest Short Range Outlook. The global steel group said steel demand will fall 0.9 percent to 1.75 billion tons, the third-straight year of decline.
The group said steel demand will finally rebound in 2025 in all markets except China, leading to a 1.2 percent increase to 1.77 million tons next year.
“2024 has been a difficult year for global steel demand as the global manufacturing sector continued to grapple with persistent headwinds such as declining household purchasing power, aggressive monetary tightening and escalating geopolitical uncertainties. The ongoing weakness in housing construction, which is driven by tight financing conditions and high costs, has further contributed to the sluggish demand for steel," said Dr. Martin Theuringer, managing director, German Steel Association and chair of the worldsteel Economics Committee.
The group downgraded its 2024 forecast in the most recent SRO. "We now anticipate a notable decline in steel demand in China and most major developed economies in 2024. In stark contrast, India is expected to maintain its strong momentum, with robust growth in steel demand projected for both 2024 and 2025."
The ongoing downturn in the Chinese real estate sector is expected to dominate steel demand in China, resulting in a 3.0 percent decline in 2024 and a further 1.0 percent drop in 2025. However, there is a growing possibility of more substantial government intervention and support for the real economy, which could bolster Chinese steel demand in 2025, worldsteel said.
Steel demand in the developing world excluding China is projected to grow by 3.5 percent in 2024 and 4.2 percent in 2025, driven by India’s robust growth and a rebound in other major emerging economies.
The developed world is projected to experience a 2.0 percent decrease in steel demand in 2024, as major steel-using economies like the U.S. Japan, Korea and Germany face significant declines. However, there is optimism for 2025, with a projected growth of 1.9 percent in developed world steel demand. This anticipated recovery is driven by the long-awaited upturn in steel demand in the EU, and modest recoveries in the U.S. and Japan.