It was, potentially, one of those much-discussed October surprises poised to tip an election.
In the first week of the month, the International Longshoremen’s Association launched a strike against the United States Maritime Alliance Ltd. at ports on the East and Gulf coasts. The strike was going to be felt immediately, with estimates of a single day’s work stoppage doing billions of dollars of damage.
Fortunately for us, (and possibly for Democratic nominee Kamala Harris, though by the time you read this we will know for certain), the strike ended after just three days, when the two sides came to an agreement on most of the issues in dispute.
However, this was more a stay of execution than a full economic reprieve. The new deal will expire again in just two months if the warring parties have not reached a compromise on the biggest sticking point, the use of automation at the ports. The USMA wants to stay competitive with foreign ports that supplement workers with automation, while the ILA wants to keep operations in human hands.
For most, the simple fact the debilitating work stoppage has been pushed down the road is probably the most important development, given how repellant the alternative is. We all remember the sight of barges circling like sharks outside the Port of Long Beach, fruitlessly waiting to find a place to dock. It’s perhaps the defining image of the gruesome supply chain challenges that followed in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.
But to me, the sticking point is perhaps a more noteworthy item, one that is not hitting our economy now but could in the future.
I just returned from FABTECH, where once again automation was front and center. Equipment manufacturers of all types tout their machineries’ robotic features, options that allow for lights out work and require limited operator involvement. And in the worker shortage environment that is expected to continue for the foreseeable future, there is zero downside to using robots to replace ghosts.
But will that always be the case? It’s not difficult to envision a significant economic downturn in the future where Help Wanted signs aren’t as plentiful as they are now. I can’t help but wonder if there will come a time when humans in many fields really are trying to compete with robots on a larger scale. I also wonder how often they will come up short. Flesh and blood has already lost the war with robots in the toll booth operator and travel agency sectors, while grocery store cashiers may not be far from waving the white flag. What happens then?
From what we saw of its president in the lead-up to the strike, the Longshoremen’s union is not the most sympathetic group to lead the fight against automation. But will the response be the same when we see more lovable professionals, such as factory workers, farm hands or, gasp, trade magazine editors, succumb in the fight?